Thank you for your service
R.I.P. Pax Americana
"Thank you for your service" is a phrase commonly used in the United States to express gratitude to military veterans and active service members for their sacrifices and contributions to the country. A couple of years ago, I followed that example by saying that same thing to a school friend who had terminal cancer and succumbed only months later. He had served in the New Zealand armed forces.
Today, I repeat the phrase with sincerity to the citizens of the United States of America.
For eight decades the world has benefited from the role that the United States of America has held in global affairs, both in the realms of politics and economics. Though it wasn’t perfect (and the U.S. got some benefit from its position), the world was a better place for it in many ways. But the U.S. is stepping down from that role. While it is easy to be upset by the decision and the way in which it is being brought about, I choose, first of all, to acknowledge the role the U.S. has played. I think the future could look quite ugly compared to the last eighty years.
I’m not an expert on the topic, but I share the following links to articles written by those better informed than I. Given what is at stake, I strongly urge you to read them.
I find it interesting that the first was written after last year’s U.S. election result was known, and the second was written prior to inauguration day. These people had an idea of what was (and is) going on.
Who will fill the void left by America’s sudden departure? In Afghanistan it was the Taliban, and the world still has plenty of groups seeking power that hold to ideas and beliefs that are far removed from the concept of common decency and respect for others held by most of the world’s citizens. Crypto bros will cry, “Bitcoin!”, but I think the likes of Bitcoin are too fundamentally flawed and too “wild west” to take such a significant role.
In any event, the world is in a very vulnerable position. Up until now, I had made my case for a significant economic downturn purely on the basis of the end of a business cycle meeting the end of a demographic cycle. The end of a global political cycle and economic hegemony is a new addition to an already explosive mix.