Let’s put the economic theory aside and look at some charts.
“People on the streets”
… or soon there will be … so my trading model tells me. Yep, a trading model that works on economic fundamentals. Go figure!
Initial claims:
Jobless claims:
That’s in addition to the year-over-year employment related data that we’ve gone over before …
Torsten Slok of Apollo Global Management recently put out some analysis suggesting similar findings based upon the Warn notices, which are an initial action by management signaling an impending action upon employees (i.e. the decision has been made and now it’s just a matter of complying with regulations before the employees are sent home once the 60-90 day period is up).
This is ourselves. Under pressure.
Volatility
I’ve been revisiting my analysis of realized volatility relative to implied volatility from last November.